1 Growth Parameters
2 Results
① Withdrawal Parameters
How long will your savings last? Enter your retirement balance, monthly withdrawal, and expected return to see when your portfolio depletes.
G The Compound Interest Guide
1 What Is Compound Interest?
Compound interest is the interest you earn on both your original money and on the interest you have previously received. It makes your money grow faster than simple interest, which is calculated only on the principal amount.
For example, if you invest $10,000 at 7% annual return, after one year you have $10,700. In year two, you earn 7% on $10,700 — not just the original $10,000. Over decades, this snowball effect creates exponential growth.
2 The Formula
The standard compound interest formula with regular contributions is:
Where:
- A = Final amount
- P = Principal (initial investment)
- r = Annual interest rate (decimal)
- n = Number of compounding periods per year
- t = Number of years
- PMT = Regular contribution per period
3 Historical Market Returns
Past performance does not guarantee future results, but long-term historical data provides useful reference points:
- S&P 500 (1926–2023): ~10.2% annual return before inflation, ~7.0% after inflation
- US Total Bond Market: ~5.3% annual return before inflation, ~2.5% after inflation
- 60/40 Stock/Bond Portfolio: ~8.8% annual return before inflation, ~5.8% after inflation
- Inflation (CPI, long-term average): ~3.2% annually
Conservative retirement planners often model 5–6% real returns to account for sequence-of-returns risk during the withdrawal phase.
4 Common Mistakes to Avoid
- Overestimating returns: Using 10%+ consistently ignores market downturns, fees, and taxes.
- Ignoring inflation: A million dollars in 30 years buys far less than today. Always check the "real value" figure.
- Inconsistent contributions: Missing even a few years of contributions, especially early on, dramatically reduces the final balance due to lost compounding time.
- Neglecting tax drag: Capital gains, dividend taxes, and withdrawal taxes can reduce net returns by 1–3% annually.
- Forgetting the 4% rule context: The famous "4% safe withdrawal rate" assumes a 30-year horizon with a 60/40 portfolio. Adjust for longer retirements or different asset mixes.
5 The 4% Rule Explained
The 4% rule, introduced by William Bengen in 1994, suggests that retirees can safely withdraw 4% of their initial portfolio balance in the first year, then adjust for inflation each subsequent year, with a high probability of not depleting the portfolio over 30 years.
Key assumptions: 50/50 stock/bond allocation, annual rebalancing, no additional income, 30-year horizon. For longer retirements (40–50 years, as in FIRE), a 3.0–3.5% initial withdrawal rate is often recommended.
6 FIRE Movement Quick Reference
Financial Independence Retire Early (FIRE) practitioners use aggressive savings rates to reach independence decades before traditional retirement age:
- Lean FIRE: $1M+ portfolio, $30–40K annual spending
- Coast FIRE: Save enough early that compound growth alone reaches your target by retirement age
- Barista FIRE: Partial financial independence — portfolio covers most expenses, part-time work covers the rest
- Fat FIRE: $5M+ portfolio, $150K+ annual spending
The crossover point typically requires a 50–70% savings rate sustained for 10–15 years, depending on income level and market returns.